Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.13322e-05           1           1          67          28           3        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.32159e-05           1           4          56          36           3        C7.9
GOES Xray  =   2.66408e-07           1           0          36          54           9        M1.6
est. ISN   =            89           1           0          75          20           4        C4.6
 
together                             0.50        1.50       58.75       34.50        4.75     C7.7
 
realized                                                                                      X1.6