Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.29082e-05           1           1          64          28           6        C6.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.37632e-05           1           2          56          38           3        C8.1
GOES Xray  =   2.35287e-07           1           1          59          34           5        C7.1
est. ISN   =           100           1           1          65          29           4        C6.3
 
together                             0.50        1.75       61.00       32.25        4.50     C6.9
 
realized                                                                                      M9.1