Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.90257e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.03733e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.68249e-07           1           0          35          56           8        M1.6
est. ISN   =           102           1           1          66          27           5        C6.0
 
together                             0.50        0.50       49.00       41.75        8.25     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      X2.2