Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.25256e-05           1           0          39          48          12        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.40990e-05           1           1          41          48           9        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.91691e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =            81           2           1          63          28           6        C6.5
 
together                             0.75        0.50       43.75       45.00       10.00     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      M4.2