SIDC ursigram

:Issued: 2024 Jun 14 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40614
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Jun 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 006

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24
hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and two
M-class flares. The strongest flares were an M3.2 flare peaking at 16:44
UTC on June 13, associated with NOAA AR 3713 (beta) and an M2.4 flare
peaking at 04:32 UTC on June 14, associated with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma).
There are currently eight active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR
3712 (beta-gamma) being the most complex one. NOAA AR 3702 is currently
rotating behind the west limb. NOAA ARs 3714 and 3715 have decayed into
plage. A new, currently unnumbered AR has emerged in the north-west
quadrant, west of NOAA AR 3702. The solar flaring activity is expected to
be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a
chance of M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) has been
detected around 15:24 UTC on June 13 in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph imagery.
The CME is mostly directed to the west. The CME source region is believed
to be behind the west limb and no impact on Earth is expected. Analysis of
the faint partial halo CME detected around 23:32 UTC on June 12 in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 suggests a potential Earth-directed component. A glancing
blow from this CME might arrive at Earth early on June 16. No other Earth-
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes: An equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole still resides
on the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to
arrive at Earth starting from June 16.

Solar wind: The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values
ranging from 297 km/s to 375 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field
between 3 nT and 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and 3 nT. The
interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive
sector, changing to negative around 17:00 UTC on June 13 and back to
positive around 03:00 UTC on June 14. Slow solar wind conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours. Enhancements in the solar wind may be
expected starting from June 16 due to the possible glancing blow and high-
speed stream arrivals.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp
between 0 and 2). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet to unsettled
levels (K BEL between 0 and 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the
threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the
next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and
is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 160, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Jun 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 170
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 149, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
13  1634  1645 1655 S16E59 M3.2 1N       ///3713      
14  0414  0432 0443 ////// M2.4          51/3712      
END

UMAGF 30503 40614 1004/ 13069 1/009 21122 32011
UMAGF 31523 40614 0000/ 13003 1/004 21101 32220
BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#