INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2021 May 13 13:12UTC

Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR)
2822 (Catania sunspot group 93, mag. configuration Beta-delta) produced
only B-class flares and continues to decay. NOAA AR 2823 is smaller, less
active, and in a decaying phase. NOAA AR 2821 has a simple magnetic
configuration and is not expected to produce strong flares.  Solar activity
is expect to decrease over the next 24 hours with a small chance of C-class
events.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the
available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu in the past 24 hours and is
expected to remain so. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels
in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so. 

The geomagnetic conditions are still affected by the Interplanetary Coronal
Mass Ejection (ICME) that arrive at 05:49UT 12 Mar. The solar wind speed
reached a pick of 550 km/s during the last hours of the 12 Mar and has
gradually decreased to 400 km/s. The total magnetic field strength (Btot)
increased to 20 nT during the 12 Mar and has gradually decreased to 8 nT.
The Bz component of the magnetic field had very negative values (directed
toward the Sun), down to -20 nT, until approximately 14:30 UT 12 Mar. Since
then it fluctuated between -10 and +10 nT, with mostly positive values. The
electron density increased to approximately 80 electorns/cm3 and fluctuated
a lot as a result of the ICME, but stabilized after 15:00UT 12 Mar to
approximately 10 electorns/cm3. The gradual decrease of the solar wind is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours. The Btot and Bz are expected to
continue their gradual decrease and the Bz is expected to have positive
values. The electron density is expected to remain low in the next 24 hours
and not to exceed the 10 electorns/cm3.

The arrival of the ICME caused a strong geomagnetic storm (NOAA Kp index 7
between 12:00 and 18:00 UT and local K Dourbes index 6 between 14:00 and
18:00 UT).  However, it quickly dropped to active levels (NOAA Kp index 4
between 18:00 and 24:00 UT) and then to quiet conditions (NOAA Kp index 2
between 00:00 and 12:00 UT). The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
in quiet levels for the next 24 hours.