INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2021 Apr 15 12:36UTC

Solar activity remained at very low levels over the last 24 hours. Sunspot
group Catania 86 (NOAA 2814) increased in area and grew its number of
visible spots. It registered low levels of activity and remained magnetic
type Beta. A faint new sunspot group is developing around S22E02 and
another active region is currently rotating from the south-east limb. The
flaring activity within the next 24 hours is expected to remain low with a
minor chance for a C-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than
2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to
remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected
to be predominantly at nominal in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR)
registered the arrival of an ICME with associated increase in the solar
wind density and decrease in temperature. The total magnetic field reached
a magnitude of 10.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The ICME is most
probably related to a slow CME which left off the west solar limb in the
UTC morning of April 10th. Since the CME was rather slow (with estimated
speed below 350 km/s) it did not cause a prominent increase in the solar
wind speed. The arrival of the ICME caused an isolated period of globally
active geomagnetic conditions between 21:00 UTC on April 14th and 00:00 UTC
on April 15th and later on a minor geomagnetic storm between 06:00 UTC and
09:00 UTC on April 15th. Locally the geomagnetic conditions reached only
active levels with K Dourbes = 4 between 23:00 UTC on April 14th and 02:00
UTC on April 15th.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected in the next 24 hours
with the arrival of a CIR. On April 16th we expect the arrival of a HSS
associated with a small equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH)
crossed the central meridian on April 13th. Unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions are expected for that day with a change for a minor geomagnetic
storm. On April 17th the arrival of a high-latitude extension of the
negative polarity southern polar coronal hole might result in more minor
geomagnetic storms.