SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2019 Oct 18 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 91018
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Oct 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Oct 2019 until 20 Oct 2019)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2019  10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2019  10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2019  10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 032
COMMENT: The Sun is spotless and did not produce any flares in the past 24
hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only
1%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by ACE varied between about 330
and 420 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied
between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind
conditions are expected from the second half of October 19 onwards, with
the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent,
negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to
the equator.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 18 and
the first half of October 19. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes =
4-5) are possible in the second half of October 19 and on October 20 (with
a chance for moderate storm intervals, K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected
arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative
polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the
equator.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Oct 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 066
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 007
ESTIMATED AP           : 006
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 28 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.