SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 May 28 1458 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70528
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 May 2017, 1457UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 May 2017 until 30 May 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 May 2017  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 066
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 May 2017  10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 May 2017  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 009
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has increased. There have
been four B-flares flares originated at NOAA AR 2659 (McIntosh:Dai;
Mag.Type:Beta). The biggest flare B9.2 peaked yesterday (27-Mar-2017) at
18:30 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected over the past 24 hours.
Solar electron and proton fluxes have remained at background levels over
the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2659 is expected to produce more B-class and
C-class flares over the next 24 hours.


Solar wind speed was fluctuating around 300 km/s (DSCOVR) until 14:50 UT
yesterday when a small shock was observed in the solar wind due to the
arrival of the 23-May-2017 coronal mass ejection. Initially, solar wind
speed abruptly increased from 303 km/s to 385 km/s and density increased
from 4.6 to 70p/cm3.

The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strength Bt jumped from 2.5
to 10 nT, while the Bz component jumped to -8.5 nT. Later on yesterday, Bt
reached a maximum of 22.30 nT at 22:30 UT and Bz component reached -20.5 nT
value. Then Bt started to decrease gradually (till 16.5 nT), while Bz
slowly returned to low values (-3.5 nT) being strongly negative. Solar wind
speed is currently (28-May-2017 October, 12:30 UT) below 400 km/s.

Kp index reached moderate storm levels (Kp=6) from 21 UT (2017-05-27) to 03
UT (2017-05-28, today). During 03-06 UT, today Kp reached major storm
levels (Kp=7) and during 06-12 UT again moderate and minor storm levels
(Kp=6, Kp=5). Local K index at Dourbes was mostly at minor to major
storming levels (K=5,4,5,6,7,5) from 21 UT (2017-05-27) to 12 UT
(2017-05-28, today).

Total IMF strength is expected to remain at high levels tomorrow, and Bz
component is not expected to become strongly negative. Solar Wind speed is
expected to remain below 400 km/s. Therefore geomagnetic environment is
expected to remain most probably at active conditions (Kp=4) for the next
two days. However, isolated minor storming episodes (Kp=5) are still
possible.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 022, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 May 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 082
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 045
AK WINGST              : 013
ESTIMATED AP           : 017
ESTIMATED ISN          : 024, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.