SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Mar 29 1246 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70329
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2017, 1244UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2017 until 31 Mar 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2017  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2017  10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2017  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has returned to B-class
eruptive level. There have been seven B-flares flares originated at NOAA AR
2645 (McIntosh:Dai; Mag.Type:Betta-Gamma).The biggest flare B4.5 peaked
today (29-Mar-2017) at 01.40 UT originated at NOAA AR 2646 (McIntosh:Axx;
Mag.Type:Alpha) which is about to rotate over the east limb. No Earth-
directed CMEs have been detected over the past 24 hours. Solar protons have
remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar X-Ray
background level is expected to remain low. NOAA AR 2645 is expected to
produce more B-class flares over the next 24 hours. C-class flares are also
not excluded.
Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR remained stable
with the average value around 700 km/s till 06:00 UT today (29-Mar-2017).
Then the speed dropped abruptly till 630 km/s. WSA-ENLIL model indicates
the Earth is out of influence of the high speed stream. Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) remained stable with the value around 4 nT. Bz
variations remained at low level (varying mostly between -4 nT and +4nT).
The geomagnetic field stayed at active conditions level  (K Dourbes between
2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 3 and 4). Active to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions (K Dourbes < = 4) are expected today and tomorrow.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 047, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Mar 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 084
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 025
AK WINGST              : 024
ESTIMATED AP           : 027
ESTIMATED ISN          : 055, BASED ON 35 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.