SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
Archive
Latest issue
:Issued: 2010 Feb 08 1409 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 00208 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Feb 2010, 1347UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Feb 2010 until 10 Feb 2010) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 020 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 025 COMMENT: Solar activity stays at active levels: NOAA AR 1045 released today, Feb 08 more M-flares: an M4.0 flare peaking at 07:42UT (information from IPS flare report), an M2.1 flare peaking at 12:47UT (information from 1 min GOES-14 X-ray Flux data). The first glimpse of a CME is visible in STEREO Ahead COR2 pictures at 06:39 UT. The CME propagates towards the Earth. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to major storm level on Feb 09 as consequence of the arrival of the halo CME associated with the M6.4 flare on Feb 07, peaking at 02:34UR. More geomagnetic disturbances can be expected as the CME seen by STEREO reaches Earth. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 036, BASED ON 07 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Feb 2010 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 090 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : 005 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 024, BASED ON 06 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.