SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Sep 23 1234 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70923
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Sep 2017, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Sep 2017 until 25 Sep 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low, only a
small B-class flare was recorded. Catania sunspot groups 56 (NOAA active
regions 2681) remained stable showing no flaring activity. Catania sunspot
group 55 (NOAA active region 2680) is currently turning over the west solar
limb. The top of the loops from the returning region Catania sunspot group
46 (NOAA active region 2673), from which a B3.0-class flare (Sept 23 at
06:03 UT) is attributed, is now visible at the east solar limb. We expect
the solar activity to increase due to this returning region with C-class
flares. As this region was very active with several X-class flares during
the previous solar rotation, we cannot exclude the possibility of M to
X-class flares to occur. Once the foot-points of the loops will be visible,
a better estimation of its magnetic complexity will be made and we will be
able to better estimate the probability of flaring activity.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained at
background level over the past 24 hours.

The Earth remained inside a slow solar wind flow with de speed lower than
400 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 6 nT
and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT being mainly negative.
The associated fast solar wind to the small equatorial coronal hole that
has crossed the central meridian on Sept 20 is expected to arrive at Earth
today around midnight UT time.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with Kp (NOAA) and
local K (Dourbes) indexes ranging between 1-2 and 0-3 respectively. While
the solar wind remained in its nominal condition, the local K (Dourbs)
sowed an unexpected short duration maximum (K=4) at 22:00 UT due to the Bz
components being mostly negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain quiet to unsettled until Sept 23 when the fast solar will reach
Earth.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 012, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Sep 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 022
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 078
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 006
ESTIMATED ISN          : 018, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.