SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2021 Apr 15 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 10415
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Apr 2021, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Apr 2021 until 17 Apr 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Apr 2021  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Apr 2021  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Apr 2021  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 024
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the last 24 hours.
Sunspot group Catania 86 (NOAA 2814) increased in area and grew its number
of visible spots. It registered low levels of activity and remained
magnetic type Beta. A faint new sunspot group is developing around S22E02
and another active region is currently rotating from the south-east limb.
The flaring activity within the next 24 hours is expected to remain low
with a minor chance for a C-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than
2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to
remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected
to be predominantly at nominal in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR)
registered the arrival of an ICME with associated increase in the solar
wind density and decrease in temperature. The total magnetic field reached
a magnitude of 10.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The ICME is most
probably related to a slow CME which left off the west solar limb in the
UTC morning of April 10th. Since the CME was rather slow (with estimated
speed below 350 km/s) it did not cause a prominent increase in the solar
wind speed. The arrival of the ICME caused an isolated period of globally
active geomagnetic conditions between 21:00 UTC on April 14th and 00:00 UTC
on April 15th and later on a minor geomagnetic storm between 06:00 UTC and
09:00 UTC on April 15th. Locally the geomagnetic conditions reached only
active levels with K Dourbes = 4 between 23:00 UTC on April 14th and 02:00
UTC on April 15th.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected in the next 24 hours
with the arrival of a CIR. On April 16th we expect the arrival of a HSS
associated with a small equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH)
crossed the central meridian on April 13th. Unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions are expected for that day with a change for a minor geomagnetic
storm. On April 17th the arrival of a high-latitude extension of the
negative polarity southern polar coronal hole might result in more minor
geomagnetic storms.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 023, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Apr 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 021
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 074
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 020
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 020, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.