SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2016 Sep 26 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60926
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Sep 2016, 1250UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Sep 2016 until 28 Sep 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Sep 2016  10CM FLUX: 082 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Sep 2016  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Sep 2016  10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 032
COMMENT: There is only one active region observed on the visible side of
the solar disc, NOAA AR 2597. Solar activity is low with one C-class flare
reported during last 24 hours. The C 1.3 flare which peaked at 19:14 on
September 25 originated form NOAA AR 2597. We can expect isolated C-class
flares in the coming hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the
last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is presently about 410 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude is about 10 nT, and the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field is about -6 nT. Due to longer interval of the
negative value of the Bz component, disturbed geomagnetic conditions were
reported in the evening and around midnight of September 26 (local station
at Dourbes reported interval with K=5 and NOAA reported interval of  Kp=5).
The fast flow associated with the large, low latitude extension of the
northern polar coronal hole which crossed central meridian on mid-day of
September 25 is expected to arrive at the Earth in the late evening of
September 27 or early morning of September 28. We expect that arrival of
fast solar wind will induce disturbed geomagnetic conditions (up to Kp=6).
The geomagnetic conditions are presently unsettled to active, and we expect
them to stay so in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 028, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Sep 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 085
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 044
AK WINGST              : 027
ESTIMATED AP           : 030
ESTIMATED ISN          : 028, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.