SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2016 Aug 28 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60828
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Aug 2016, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Aug 2016 until 30 Aug 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Aug 2016  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Aug 2016  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 038
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Aug 2016  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low. Just a single B2.5 flare was reported
from region NOAA 2582. This region newly emerged just South-East of former
region 2597. Some new flux emergence and spot formation was also recorded
in NOAA 2580 by the end of the period while NOAA 2581 showed consolidation
of its leading spot.
X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level with a chance for an
isolated C flare.
Proton flux levels are at background values and expected to remain so.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

Nominal solar wind conditions were observed with solar wind speed slowly
decreasing to around 400 km/s. Total magnetic field was at or below 5nT
with a variable Bz component. The magnetic field phi angle indicated a
negative sector throughout the period.
Solar wind conditions are expected to see later today or early tomorrow a
sector boundary crossing into a positive sector (away from the Sun)
followed by the onset of a high speed stream from the transequatorial
coronal hole.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2).
Geomagnetic conditions will become enhanced over the next 24 hours as a
consequence of the sector boundary crossing and the coronal hole high speed
stream. First up to active and later up to minor storm levels must be
expected.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 058, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Aug 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 084
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 006
AK WINGST              : 005
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 056, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.