SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Feb 24 1235 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70224
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Feb 2017, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Feb 2017 until 26 Feb 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Feb 2017  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Feb 2017  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Feb 2017  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 029
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with NOAA region 2638 (Catania group 96)
producing two more C flares. The strongest a C1.3 flare peaking at 20:53UT.
The group evolved into a beta-gamma configuration while also some new small
spots are recorded elsewhere on the Solar disk (Catania groups 97 and 98).
Another C flare from NOAA region 2638 is quite possible but not expected.
A narrow CME directed to the North East is visible in SoHO/LASCO
coronagraph data from 23:53 after a datagap. It is possibly related to the
C flaring from  NOAA region 2638, but is anyway directed off the sun-Earth
line.
Proton flux values are at background levels and expected to remain so.

Solar wind was enhanced under influence of the positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed continued to increase and now
fluctuates around 620 km/s. Total magnetic field fluctuated around 11nT
until 4:00UT when it dropped to nominal values of around 5nT. Bz was
variable with peaks down to -10nT.
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 48
hours.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (local K Dourbes 2-4) with an
episode of minor storm conditions at planetary level (NOAA Kp 5 for the
0-3UT period).
Active geomagnetic conditions are possible over the next days under
influence of the high speed stream.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 020, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 23 Feb 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 028
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 083
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 023
AK WINGST              : 015
ESTIMATED AP           : 013
ESTIMATED ISN          : 021, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.