Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2024 May 04 1257 UT
Date: 2024 05 04
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
8220 0000 //// 0202 PAL C RSP 112-180 CTM/1 3664
8220 0000 //// 0344 PAL C RSP 025-180 VII/3 3664
8220 0003 0040 A0122 HOL 3 FLA S22E39 1F 3664
8190 0005 0006 0008 LEA 3 FLA S22E46 SF 3664
8220 0014 //// 0810 LEA C RSP 025-180 VI/2 3664
8200 + 0026 0036 0044 G16 5 XRA 1-8A M1.6 1.2E-02 3663
8200 + 0031 0032 0049 HOL 3 FLA N26W06 SF 3663
8200 0031 0031 0031 PAL G RBR 245 120 3663
8200 + 0032 0032 0032 LEA G RBR 610 110 3663
8200 + 0032 0032 0032 LEA G RBR 1415 170 3663
8210 0037 0041 0049 LEA 3 FLA S22E46 SF 3664
8230 0130 0130 0133 LEA 3 FLA N25W05 SF 3663
8240 + 0216 0236 0252 G16 5 XRA 1-8A C5.8 1.6E-03
8250 0303 0303 0304 LEA G RBR 610 160
8260 0344 0344 0344 LEA G RBR 245 100
8260 0344 0344 0346 PAL G RBR 2695 17
8270 0344 0345 0345 PAL G RBR 610 33 3663
8270 0344 0344 0345 PAL G RBR 410 39 3663
8270 + 0345 0354 0400 G16 5 XRA 1-8A C5.5 3.6E-03 3663
8280 + 0345 0345 0345 LEA G RBR 1415 330
8270 0352 0353 0404 LEA 3 FLA N25W05 SF ERU 3663
8270 + 0400 0400 0400 LEA G RBR 245 190 3663
8290 + 0511 0517 0525 G16 5 XRA 1-8A C3.1 1.4E-03 3663
8290 + 0514 U0618 0814 SVI 3 FLA N27W08 1B UMB 3663
8300 0528 0532 0546 SVI 3 FLA S19E39 SF 3664
8330 + 0602 0619 0630 G16 5 XRA 1-8A M9.1 7.0E-02 3663
8330 0607 0619 0744 LEA 3 FLA N26W08 1B UMB 3663
8310 0607 0607 0607 SVI G RBR 8800 110
8310 + 0607 0607 0607 LEA G RBR 15400 100
8320 0609 //// 0610 SVI C RSP 025-063 III/1
8330 + 0613 0614 0617 SVI G RBR 4995 520 3663
8330 + 0613 0614 0616 LEA G RBR 8800 440 3663
8330 + 0613 0614 0617 LEA G RBR 15400 420 3663
8330 + 0613 0613 0617 LEA G RBR 410 1700 3663
8330 + 0613 0613 0616 LEA G RBR 610 310 3663
8330 + 0613 0614 0616 LEA G RBR 2695 270 3663
8330 + 0614 0614 0617 LEA G RBR 1415 230 3663
8330 + 0614 //// 0622 LEA C RSP 025-180 III/3 3663
8330 + 0614 0617 0618 LEA G RBR 245 590 3663
8330 0625 //// 0634 SVI U RSP 025-061 II/1 950 3663
8330 0627 //// 0704 LEA C RSP 062-148 IV/1 3663
8340 0638 //// 0720 SVI C RSP 025-083 IV/1
8340 + 0650 0700 0704 G16 5 XRA 1-8A C8.5 3.4E-03
8340 + 0655 0659 0703 LEA G RBR 410 410
8340 + 0658 0700 0701 LEA G RBR 1415 300
8340 + 0659 0703 0703 LEA G RBR 610 200
8440 0704 0707 0711 G16 5 XRA 1-8A M1.5 1.3E-03 3663
8440 + 0710 0716 0724 LEA G RBR 610 1400
8440 + 0711 0722 0723 LEA G RBR 1415 5700
8370 0750 0756 0800 LEA 3 FLA N26W09 SF 3663
8380 0810 //// 0811 SVI C RSP 025-082 III/1
8390 + 0831 0836 0843 G16 5 XRA 1-8A C4.5 2.6E-03 3663
8390 + 0835 0835 0837 LEA 3 FLA N27W07 SF 3663
8400 0847 0847 0847 SVI G RBR 1415 100
8410 0857 U0919 0927 SVI 3 FLA N27W11 SF ERU 3663
8420 0932 U0959 A1005 SVI 3 FLA N27W11 SF 3663
8430 B1012 U1015 A1017 SVI 3 FLA N26W06 SF ERU 3663
8450 B1029 U1040 1100 SVI 3 FLA N26W08 SF ERU 3663
8450 1046 //// 1047 SVI C RSP 025-118 III/1 3663

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density157.1
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.159.8

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.


Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W12,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M9.1/1b flare (R2/Moderate) at 04/0619
UTC, the strongest of the period. A Type II (est. 950 km/s) and Type IV
radio sweep along with a Tenflare were observed with the event. A CME is
suspected to be associated with the flare but additional coronagraph
imagery is need for conformation and analysis. This region and Region
3664 (S19E32, Ekc/beta-delta) continued to be most complex. Region 3666
(N07E10, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) also exhibited notable growth.
Other eruptive activity included a C3.9 flare at 03/2037 UTC from an
unspotted area to the east of Region 3666 (N07E09,
Dai/beta-gamma-delta). This event also produced a Type II (est. 392
km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME, first seen in
SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 03/2218 UTC, was analyzed and modeled. The
results suggested the slow-moving periphery should pass by Earth around
09 May.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or
greater), over 04-06 May.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 04-06 May. There is a slight chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over
04-06 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels over the past 24
hours. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind
speeds declined from the low 400s to near 370/km/s by the periods end.
Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive polarity after 03/1830
UTC.
---
.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS
influences are likely to prevail over 04-06 May. A stronger
disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated
arrival of the 03 May CME associated with the X1.6 flare from Region
3663.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field may reach unsettled and active levels on 04 May
due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions and
periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 05 May due to continued
positive polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the anticipated
arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to continued CME
activity and CH HSS influences.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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