SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Jun 23 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40623
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Jun 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 197 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 197 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 197 / AP: 010

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24
hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and two
M-class flares. The first was an M2.4 flare originating from NOAA active
region 3716, peaking at 06:30 UTC on June 23. The second was an M1.3 flare
originating from NOAA active region 3712, peaking at 11:37 UTC on June 23.
Besides these two regions, there are five other sunspot groups on the disc
showing C-class flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be
at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares
expected, M-class flares possible, and a small chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2
coronagraph images over the last 24 hours.

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions initially returned to a slow solar wind
regime in the last 24 hours. Around 00:00 UTC on June 23, some solar wind
parameters became disturbed, reflecting the imminent arrival of the fast
wind originating from the large north midlatitude coronal hole with
negative polarity, which reached the central meridian on June 19. The
interplanetary magnetic field reached up to 12 nT, and the Bz component
varied between -11 nT and 8 nT. The solar wind speed remained below 375
km/s, and the phi angle turned to the negative sector. In the next 24
hours, solar wind conditions are expected to become more enhanced with the
increase in solar wind speed.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 0-2, K BEL 1-3).
Later, active conditions to minor storms may be observed in response to the
high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude coronal hole.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the
threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the
next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels
and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 160, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Jun 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 196
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 152, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
23  0616  0630 0648 N09W72 M2.4 1N       ///3716      
23  1126  1137 1150 S25W84 M1.2 SF       ///3712      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.