SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
Frequency | Daily |
Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 Dec 06 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 41206 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Dec 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2024 10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Dec 2024 10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Dec 2024 10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 031 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 2818), peaking on December 06 at 09:20 UTC, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Regions 3917; beta-gamma). There are currently seven numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 and SIDC Sunspot Group 330 (NOAA Active Region 3916; beta-gamma) are currently the most complex regions on the disk and were responsible for the most of the flaring activity observed during this period together with Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906), that has rotated behind the west limb. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912; beta). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and have not shown any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and M-class flares possible. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Coronal holes: A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60) has been crossing the central meridian since December 4. Another positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, SIDC Coronal Hole 82, reached the central meridian today, December 6. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 420 km/s to values about 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Dec 07-08 due to possible arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on Dec 04. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled globally (NOAA Kp: 1 to 3-) and quiet locally over Belgium (K-Bel: 1 to 2). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days, with a chance of isolated active periods on December 7-8 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream (HSS). Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 113, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 05 Dec 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 175 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008 AK WINGST : 004 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 130, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 06 0906 0920 0942 S08E47 M1.2 SF 33/3917 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.