SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2025 Jan 13 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50113
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Jan 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a
C8.1-flare, with peak time 02:15 UTC on Jan 13 2025, from SIDC Sunspot
Group 360 NOAA AR 3947 (beta-gamma). There are currently 7 numbered active
regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA AR 3947) is the
most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be
at low levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class
flares probable and X-class flares unlikely.

Coronal mass ejections: No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Coronal holes: A large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) started crossing the central meridian.
A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind
environment near Earth on Jan 16.

Solar wind: The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 420
km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field has slightly risen to 13 nT with
the Bz reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. Enhancements of the solar wind
speed are expected in the next 24h, due to the potential arrival of the
high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which crossed the
central meridian on 11 Jan 2025.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet over the past 24
hours, with an isolated active period in the beginning of Jan 13 2025,
(NOAA Kp 4 and local K Belgium 4). Quiet to active conditions with
possible isolated minor geomagnetic storm levels are expected for January
14.


Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the
10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.


Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below
the 1000 pfu alert threshold, even if an increase was observed in the past
24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24
hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to
remain so.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 087, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Jan 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 158
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : 007
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 111, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.