SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2026 Mar 16 1236 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60316
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Mar 2026, 1235UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 010

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 7217) peaking
on March 15 at 15:09 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 822
(NOAA Active Region 4395). There are currently 6 numbered regions on the
disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 818 (NOAA Active Region 4391) also produced a C1.1
(SIDC Flare 7219), peaking on March 19 at 09:54 UTC.  SIDC Sunspot Group
820 (NOAA Active Region 4392, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) is the
largest region on disk and was growing over the past 24 hours. The other
regions are simple and mostly quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to
be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance
for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes: The southern midlatitude extension of the large positive
polarity trans-equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 154) is still
crossing the central meridian.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected the
ongoing influence of the high speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal
Hole 154. The solar wind speed decreased slightly from around 700 kms to
550 km/s. The total magnetic field was stable around 6nT. Bz had a minimum
of -5 nT.  The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the
positive sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are
expected to remain perturbed over the next 24 hours due to the continued
influence of the high speed stream of this extended coronal hole.

Geomagnetism: Over the past 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were at
unsettled to active levels globally (NOAA Kp 4) and locally (K BEL 4).
Further active conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the
ongoing high speed stream influence.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10
pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, briefly exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000
pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal to
moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels for the next 24
hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 079, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Mar 2026
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 109
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 025
AK WINGST              : 019
ESTIMATED AP           : 020
ESTIMATED ISN          : 071, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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