SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2024 Dec 06 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41206
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Dec 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 031

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate
levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded over
the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 2818),
peaking on December 06 at 09:20 UTC, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 288
(NOAA Active Regions 3917; beta-gamma). There are currently seven numbered
active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 and SIDC
Sunspot Group 330 (NOAA Active Region 3916; beta-gamma) are currently the
most complex regions on the disk and were responsible for the most of the
flaring activity observed during this period together with Group 323 (NOAA
Active Region 3906), that has rotated behind the west limb. Low flaring
activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region
3912; beta). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their
photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and have not shown any
significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at
moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and
M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24
hours.

Coronal holes: A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole (SIDC Coronal
Hole 60) has been crossing the central meridian since December 4. Another
positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, SIDC Coronal
Hole 82, reached the central meridian today, December 6.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and
DSCOVR) reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed
decreased from 420 km/s to values about 370 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field remained below 7 nT. The southward component of the
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT.  The
interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative
sector (field directed towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are
expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak
enhancement on Dec 07-08 due to possible arrival of a high-speed stream
from a positive  polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central
meridian on Dec 04.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to
unsettled globally (NOAA Kp: 1 to 3-) and quiet locally over Belgium
(K-Bel: 1 to 2). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected
over the next days, with a chance of isolated active periods on December
7-8 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream (HSS).

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10
pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and
it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The
24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at
these levels.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 113, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 05 Dec 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 175
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 130, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
06  0906  0920 0942 S08E47 M1.2 SF       33/3917      
END

BT
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