SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2025 Jul 19 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50719 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2025, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 009 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2025 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 007 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only three C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 525 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4135) produced the brightest flare, SIDC flare 4915 (a C3) on 19 Jul at 09:07 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (NOAA AR 4136, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced the remaining flares, including the double flare SIDC flare 4913 (a C2) at 13:09 on 18 Jul. Further infrequent flaring activity is expected in the next 24 hours. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Solar wind: During the past 24 hours the effects of the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 11 July subsided and the Solar Wind (SW) conditions are very gradually returning to a slow SW regime. The SW speed varied between 490 and 590 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field (B) ranged between 2 and 7 nT. Its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -6 and 6 nT. The SW conditions are expected to remain at the same levels in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: The global geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA Kp 4) for the interval of 12:00 to 15:00 UTC on 18 Jul. The rest of the past 24 hours they varied between unsettled and quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 3). The local geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (K BEL 4) for the interval of 12:00 to 18:00 UTC on 18 Jul. The rest of the past 24 hours they were at quiet levels (K BEL 1 to 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES 19, was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected wane and fluctuate around the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 162, BASED ON 14 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Jul 2025 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 213 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 156 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023 AK WINGST : 016 ESTIMATED AP : 015 ESTIMATED ISN : 173, BASED ON 27 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.