SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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:Issued: 2022 May 26 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20526
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 May 2022, 1248UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 May 2022 until 28 May 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 019
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been moderate,
with the flare of the largest X-ray output the M1.3-class flare, peak time
May 25 18:24UTC, from former NOAA AR 3016. NOAA AR 3014 is about to rotate
off the visible disc. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be
expected, M-class flares are possible and there is a change of X-class
flares.

A coronal mass ejection was detected by CACTus on LASCO/C2 data at May 25
18:36UTC, associated with recorded radio emissions and the M1.3-class flare
. Analysis showed a glancing blow for about mid-May 28 cannot be excluded.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected
to remain so in the next 24 hours, pending flaring activity. The greater
than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24
hours. It can be expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h
electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal
levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the magnetic field values fluctuated between 1 and
6nT, while Bz had values between -4 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed did not
exceed the 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched
to the negative sector (towards the Sun) around May 25 22:00UTC. Over the
next 24 hours, we are expecting to see the effects from high speed stream
of the negative polarity coronal hole.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Over the next 24
hours, quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected, with a small chance
of isolated active periods.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 081, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 May 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 148
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 137
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 104, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
25  1809  1824 1843 S19W41 M1.3 1N  160  16/3016      III/2II/3IV/1 
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.