SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2026 Jul 14 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60714
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Jul 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 020
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 008

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity has been low over
the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C1.5
flare (SIDC Flare 8200) peaking at 09:56 UTC on July 14, associated with
SIDC Sunspot Group 910 (NOAA Active Region 4482, magnetic type alpha).
There are currently three numbered active regions on the solar disk, all
with alpha magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active
Region 4485) has rotated behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 914 and
SIDC Sunspot Group 915 (NOAA Active Region 4448) have decayed into plage.
The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours,
with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 687) was observed
in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off from the southeast limb
starting from 19:36 UTC on July 13. It is likely a backsided event that is
not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours.

Solar wind: Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (SOLAR-1 and
ACE) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed
decreased from 430 km/s to around 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field was between 5 nT and 10 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 nT and
5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was predominantly in the
negative sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours. There is a chance for enhanced conditions in case of high-
speed stream arrivals from the southern, positive polarity coronal holes
(SIDC Coronal Holes 172 and 173) and a late glancing blow arrival
associated with SIDC CME 686.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly quiet (NOAA Kp 2-
to 2), with an interval of active conditions (NOAA Kp 4- ) between 21:00
UTC on July 13 and 00:00 UTC on July 14. Geomagnetic conditions locally
were mostly at unsettled levels (K Bel 3) until 01:00 UTC on July 14,
decreasing then to quiet (K Bel 1 to 2). Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 3) are expected over the next 24 hours. There is
with a chance of isolated active or minor storm intervals (NOAA Kp 4 to 5),
in case of high-speed stream arrivals from the southern, positive polarity
coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 172 and 173) and a late glancing blow
arrival associated with SIDC CME 686.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10
pfu threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES 18 was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 15:00 UTC and 23:10 UTC on
July 13. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was above
the 1000 pfu threshold between 13:00 UTC and 18:45 UTC on July 13. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu
threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at
normal levels and it is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 037, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Jul 2026
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 059
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 103
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 015
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 044, BASED ON 33 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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