SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2022 Dec 04 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 21204
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Dec 2022, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Dec 2022 until 06 Dec 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Dec 2022  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Dec 2022  10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2022  10CM FLUX: 148 / AP: 010
COMMENT: The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest
flare was an impulsive M1.2 flare, peaking at 17:45 UT, associated with
newly numbered region NOAA AR 3157 near the northeast limb. This event was
also associated with a Type II radio emission. New region, NOAA AR 3158,
emerged in the northern hemisphere but remains simple and has been
inactive. Catania sunspot groups 8 and 11 (NOAA ARs 3153 and 3156) produced
low level C-class flares.  Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA ARs 3155) showed
some flux emergence. Catania sunspot group 7 (NOAA AR 3154) decayed and was
inactive. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with
C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

No Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24
hours. The electron flux is expected to continue to exceed this threshold
over the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate to high levels.
The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at moderate to high levels in
the next 24 hours.

On December 04, a large trans-equatorial negative polarity coronal hole
began to transit the central meridian.

The solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of the high-speed
stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 570 km/s and 490 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 1 and 7 nT. The
magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field
directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA KP 2-3 and Local K
Dourbes 2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels over the next day.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 110, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 03 Dec 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 134
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 015
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 010
ESTIMATED ISN          : 093, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
03  1736  1741 1745 N18E83 M1.2 SN       ///3157      III/2II/2 
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.