SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2022 May 15 1244 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20515
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 May 2022, 1242UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 May 2022 until 17 May 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate
levels with background C-class flaring and an isolated M2.2-flare (start
time 23:58 UTC, end time 00:17 UTC, peak time 00:09 UTC) from the north-
east limb last night. Multiple low C-class flares and a C5.7-class flare
(peak time 22:07 UTC on May 14th) seem to have originated from the same
region at the worth-east limb. The strongest activity on the visible disc
was a C4.5-class flare (peak time 22:38 UTC on May 14th) from active region
NOAA 3010 (beta), which has significantly grown in size and increased its
number of sun spots. The largest active region on the visible solar
surface, NOAA 3007 (beta), has remained mostly unchanged and quiet. NOAA
ARs 3008 and 3012 have decayed into plage, while NOAA AR 3006 (beta) has
decayed further and NOAA AR 3011 (beta) remained stable. A new small and
simple active region was numbered in the southern-east hemisphere, NOAA
3013 (beta) and so far has been inactive. Two unnumbered active regions are
visible to the east of NOAA 3011, one of which (at the east limb) is
expected to produce further C- or M-class flaring over the next 24 hours.
The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low
to moderate levels with possible further M-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at nominal levels over the
past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is
expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was
at nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24
hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have
registered the arrival of a CIR and a high speed stream, which appears to
be an early arrival of the expected fast solar wind coming from a large
patchy positive-polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian
less than three days ago. The solar wind speed has increased to 580 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic reached a maximum of 20.7 nT with a minimum Bz
of -9.5 nT. The B field orientation remained predominantly in the positive
sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected
to be remain elevated over the next 24 hours and throughout the passage of
the high speed stream.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quiet to
unsettled and globally reached active levels between midnight and 06 UTC
this morning with the arrival of the high speed stream. Quiet to active
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours due to the
influence of the high speed stream.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 144, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 May 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 153
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 018
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 129, BASED ON 32 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
14  2358  0008 0017 ////// M2.2          ///////      
END

BT
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