SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
Frequency | Daily |
Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2022 May 26 1250 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20526 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 May 2022, 1248UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 May 2022 until 28 May 2022) SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 26 May 2022 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 May 2022 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 28 May 2022 10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 019 COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been moderate, with the flare of the largest X-ray output the M1.3-class flare, peak time May 25 18:24UTC, from former NOAA AR 3016. NOAA AR 3014 is about to rotate off the visible disc. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected, M-class flares are possible and there is a change of X-class flares. A coronal mass ejection was detected by CACTus on LASCO/C2 data at May 25 18:36UTC, associated with recorded radio emissions and the M1.3-class flare . Analysis showed a glancing blow for about mid-May 28 cannot be excluded. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, pending flaring activity. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It can be expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the magnetic field values fluctuated between 1 and 6nT, while Bz had values between -4 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed did not exceed the 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched to the negative sector (towards the Sun) around May 25 22:00UTC. Over the next 24 hours, we are expecting to see the effects from high speed stream of the negative polarity coronal hole. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected, with a small chance of isolated active periods. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 081, BASED ON 15 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 May 2022 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 148 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 137 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 007 ESTIMATED ISN : 104, BASED ON 26 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 25 1809 1824 1843 S19W41 M1.3 1N 160 16/3016 III/2II/3IV/1 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.