SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2025 May 13 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50513 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 May 2025, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2025 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 019 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 4373) peaking at 15:02 UTC on May 12, from beyond the east limb. There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 494 (NOAA Active Region 4086, magnetic type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 490 (NOAA Active Region 4081) has rotated behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 496 (NOAA Active Region 4087 magnetic type beta) has rotated on disk from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 495 (magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A faint, slow, full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in the LASCO/C2 and C3 imagery starting from around 10:30 UTC on May 12. The CME has a projected velocity around 300 km/s. No clear source was identified on the visible disk, suggesting a backsided event that will not impact Earth. A wide CME directed to the north was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 01:00 UTC on May 13. The CME is most likely associated with a long filament eruption observed in AIA 304 data around 23:00 UTC on May 12 near the central meridian in mid-latitude north hemisphere. This CME is expected to arrive at Earth starting from the UTC afternoon on May 16. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values ranged between 360 km/s and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 7 nT and 13 nT. The Bz component varied between -3 nT and 11 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at quiet levels (K BEL 2), with isolated intervals of unsettled levels (K BEL 3). Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 065, BASED ON 26 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 May 2025 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 073 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 116 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 006 ESTIMATED ISN : 066, BASED ON 30 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.