SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2022 Jul 04 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20704
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Jul 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Jul 2022 until 06 Jul 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jul 2022  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jul 2022  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jul 2022  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 019
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with two
C-class flares detected from NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3040 and 3046. There
are numerous AR on the visible side of the solar disk, however, they are
relatively small with simple magnetic configuration. NOAA AR 3040 will
disappear behind the solar limb in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3046 lost
some of its magnetic complexity during the last 24 hours. There is a small
chance of low C-class activity during the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA
AR 3046.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is
expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h
electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

During the last 24 hours, the Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by
the arrival of a disturbance. The SW speed gradually increased from 300 to
420 km/s in the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged between
6 and 20 nT and its Bz component varied between -13 and 18 nT, during the
past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly in
the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. An
interaction region and possibly a High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected
during the next 24 hours as the result of the Coronal Hole (CH) crossing of
1 July.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels globally (Kp 2-5) and
active levels locally (K Doubres 4 between 07:00 and 11:00 UT) during the
last 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels are expected in the next 24
hours both globally and locally.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 062, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 03 Jul 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 102
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 022
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 057, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.