SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2024 Jul 26 1253 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40726
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Jul 2024, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 053
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 048

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at
moderate level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and two
M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M1.7 flare from NOAA active
region (AR) 3761 which peaked at 04:42 UTC on Jul 26. During the flare, the
source region (AR 3761) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its
photospheric magnetic field. Currently, NOAA AR 3762 is the most complex
region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), but it
has only produced C-class flarings. The solar flaring activity is expected
to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few
M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the
available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Solar wind: Earth was under the influence of sector boundary crossing
followed by the fast wind reaching a maximum speed value of 610 km/s.
Presently, the solar wind speed amounts about 520 km/s. The solar wind
speed ranged between 370 km/s and 600 km/s. The North-South component (Bz)
ranged between -13 and 16 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between 2 nT and 20 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected in the
next 24 hours, due to the possible arrival of an interplanetary coronal
mass ejection associated with a halo CME that was observed lifting from the
Sun on Jul 25.

Geomagnetism: Enhanced solar wind speed of upto 560 km/s and negative value
of the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz, down to -10 nT, induced
a disturbed geomagnetic conditions due to the sector boundary crossing.
Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to minor storm conditions
(NOAA Kp 1 to 5) and locally at quiet to active conditions (K BEL 2 to 4).
We expect active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) in the next 24
hours due to the possible arrival of an ICME, associated with a halo CME
that was observed lifting from the Sun on Jul 25.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during
the next 24 hours. A major flare from NOAA active regions which are
presently close to and at the W limb, in the coming hours, could be
possibly associated with a proton event.



Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron
fluence is presently at low level, and it is expected to be at low to
normal level in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 198, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Jul 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 200
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 167
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 027
AK WINGST              : 013
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 189, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
25  1527  1537 1543 S09W81 M1.3 SF       12/3751      V/3II/3 
26  0430  0442 0451 S07W73 M1.7 SF       25/3761      CTM/1 
END

BT
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