SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2025 Feb 17 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50217
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Feb 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 187 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 189 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups
were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar activity has been
low int he last 24 hours, only C-class flaring was observed. The largest
flare was a C6.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3629) peaking on February 16 at 18:38
UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region
3998). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours,
with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24
hours.

Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 91 (high-latitude coronal hole with a
positive polarity) first reached the central meridian on February 16 and is
now positioned on the western side of the Sun. This CH is located at high
northern latitudes, so its solar wind will probably not affect the Earth.

Solar wind: The solar wind parameters at the Earth shows that the high
speed stream is passing, and the solar wind is returning to slow solar wind
conditions. Current solar wind speed is at 500 km/s with an interplanetary
magnetic field around 5 nT. A gradual transition to slow solar wind
conditions is expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels with Kp up to 4
between 21:00 UTC on 16 February and 00:00 UTC the next day. Mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions can be expected or the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater-than-10 MeV GOES 16 and 18 proton flux
has been above the threshold in the last 24 hours, but it is currently
below it. It is expected to rise above the threshold in the next 24 hours.
The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected
to remain so in the next 24 hours.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 189, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Feb 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 185
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 029
AK WINGST              : 022
ESTIMATED AP           : 022
ESTIMATED ISN          : 185, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.