SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
Frequency | Daily |
Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2022 Aug 18 1239 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20818 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Aug 2022, 1238UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Aug 2022 until 20 Aug 2022) SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 023 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 016 COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 was responsible for most of the flaring activity, the strongest of which were an M2.0 and M1.0 flare, peaking on August 17 at 13:45 UT and 14:52 UT, respectively. The region also produced 2 further M1 flares on the morning of August 18, with an associated Type IV radio signature. NOAA AR3082 and NOAA AR3081 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3083 decayed and was quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare. Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), associated with the M2 and M1 flares, produced by NOAA AR3078. Due to the close timing of these events the CMEs are difficult to distinguish in the coronagraph imagery. The first signature is observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 14:30 UT on August 17, with one eruption directed towards the south east and the other more directed towards the south. Given the location of the source region, a glancing blow at Earth may be expected early on August 20. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the period and decreases rapidly due to the geomagnetic storm from 19 UT. It is expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The solar wind parameters were enhanced, reflecting the passing of the ICME and the influence of the expected high speed stream. The value of the total magnetic field increased to 17nT. There was a prolonged period of negative Bz between 16UT and 20UT, with a minimum value of -17nT reached. The solar wind speed gradually increased from 420 to 600 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was mostly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the combination of effects from the current ICME, the possible arrival of another ICME and the effects of the high-speed stream. Geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels globally (NOAA Kp=6) and minor storm levels locally at Dourbes (k=5) between 18UT and midnight. Geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours are expected to be Active to minor storm conditions, with further intervals of moderate storm conditions possible, due to the possible arrival of more ICMEs on August 18 and 19, in combination with high-speed stream effects. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 098, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Aug 2022 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 123 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 034 AK WINGST : 029 ESTIMATED AP : 027 ESTIMATED ISN : 120, BASED ON 15 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 17 1326 1345 1350 S24W26 M2.0 1N 10/3078 III/1 17 1428 1452 1510 ////// M1.0 10/3078 VI/2III/2 18 1000 1009 1013 ////// M1.3 10/3078 III/1 18 1037 1055 1113 ////// M1.5 10/3078 II/1 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.