SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2022 Jun 27 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20627
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Jun 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 27 Jun 2022 until 29 Jun 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jun 2022  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jun 2022  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jun 2022  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at very low
levels. Active region NOAA 3038 (beta) is now rotating behind the northwest
limb. NOAA AR 3040 (beta) is currently crossing the central meridian, but
has remained magnetically simple and inactive. The X-ray flaring activity
over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at very levels with small
chances for isolated C-class flaring.

The partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in LASCO C2
data around 03:24 UTC on June 26th with an average plane of sky velocity of
around 680 km/s is now attributed to an on disc filament eruption in the
south-west quadrant. Based on the filament location and the direction of
the CME, the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss the Earth with a minor
chance for a weak glancing blow arrival on June 29th. No other Earth-
directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available
coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to
remain above the 1000 pfu threshold for long period of time over the next
24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to
increase to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained
under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS), which was reported
yesterday. The solar wind velocity has decreased from over 700 km/s to
about 500 km/s at present. The interplanetary magnetic field also decreased
from 9.7 nT to 6 nT at present. The Bz component was weak and mostly
positive. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed
towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced
over the next 24 hours under the influence of the HSS.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled to active.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours
as the Earth remains under the influence of the high speed stream.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 057, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Jun 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 102
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 034
AK WINGST              : 027
ESTIMATED AP           : 029
ESTIMATED ISN          : 034, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.