SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Feb 28 1232 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40228
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Feb 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Feb 2024  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Feb 2024  10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24
hours was at low levels. The largest flares was a C5.2 flare with peak time
at 09:09 UTC on February 28 from the south-east quadrant of the solar disk
(around S19E31). Weaker C-class flares were also observed from NOAA ARs
3590, 3594, 3595 and 3596. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on
the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most
magnetically complex region, and has produced most of the flaring activity
in the last 24 hours. All other regions were stable and have alpha or beta
magnetic field configurations. NOAA AR 3586 is now beyond the west limb.
The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the
coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a
small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: Eruptive signatures (coronal dimming, flare
ribbons, and development of a post-eruptive coronal loop arcade) were
visible starting around 09:00 UTC on February 28 in SDO/AIA images in
association with the C5.2 flare from the south-east quadrant (around
S19E31), implying the possibility of an Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME). No coronagraph images are currently available to confirm
the CME occurrence. However, due to the favourable location of the source
region, further investigation will be carried out to determine if and when
any associated interplanetary CME (ICME) may be expected to arrive at
Earth.

Solar wind: In the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters tended to
return to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between
370 km/s and 440 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between 2 nT and 5 nT. The Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum
value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed
towards the Sun), with short periods in the positive sector in the
afternoon (UTC) of February 27, and in the early morning (UTC) on February
28. Since around 07:00 UTC on February 28, however, gradual enhancements in
the solar wind speed and magnetic field intensity have been recorded. They
may indicate the arrival of a small solar wind structure, possibly
associated with the small negative-polarity southern coronal hole which
finished crossing the solar central meridian on February 25 (high speed
solar wind stream expected to arrive at Earth on February 29). In the next
24 hours, we expect the solar wind parameters to progressively return to
slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled conditions globally
(Kp 3) and remained locally quiet (K Bel 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the
next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive
activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was
below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24
hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to
remain so in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 116, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Feb 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 168
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 013
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 120, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.