SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2025 Mar 27 1302 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50327
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Mar 2025, 1300UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 074
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 031

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over
the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare and several C-class flares
identified. The largest flare was a M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3921) peaking at
00:37 UTC on March 27, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA
Active Region 4043). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 455) of the
flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of
4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24
hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 412 and 455 (NOAA Active Regions 4035 and 4043)
are the complex regions with its beta magnetic configurations. The solar
flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next
24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small
chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: Flaring activities from SIDC Sunspot Group 405
(NOAA AR 4028) was accompanied with a narrow coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
which is not expected to arrive at the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24
hours.

Solar wind: Earth is currently inside a very fast solar wind stream, due to
the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the large, positive polarity
coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60). This coronal hole is extension of the
southern polar coronal hole extending all across the solar equator
(connected to equatorial SIDC Coronal Hole 82), and it started to cross the
central meridian on Mar 22. Over the 24 hours, the solar wind speed
increased from 360 km/s to 840 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged from 3 nT to 29 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between
-28 and 21 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue
until Mar 31 with the continuous arrival of HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes
60, 82, and 96 (positive polarity).

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally at active to moderate
storm conditions (NOAA Kp 4 to 6), and locally at unsettled to minor storm
conditions (K_BEL 3 to 5) during the past 24 hours. The disturbed
geomagnetic conditions were due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs)
from the large, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60). This
coronal hole is extension of the southern polar coronal hole extending all
across the solar equator (connected to equatorial SIDC Coronal Hole 82),
and it started to cross the central meridian on Mar 22. In the next 24
hours, active to major storm conditions (K 4 to 7) are possible with the
continuous arrival of HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes
60, 82, and 96.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold
level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24
hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is
expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 081, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Mar 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 152
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 055
AK WINGST              : 042
ESTIMATED AP           : 045
ESTIMATED ISN          : 052, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
27  0018  0037 0051 ////// M2.0          ///4043      
END

BT
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