SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2022 Aug 18 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20818
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Aug 2022, 1238UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Aug 2022 until 20 Aug 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 025
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 was
responsible for most of the flaring activity, the strongest of which were
an M2.0 and M1.0 flare, peaking on August 17 at 13:45 UT and 14:52 UT,
respectively. The region also produced 2 further M1 flares on the morning
of August 18, with an associated Type IV radio signature. NOAA AR3082 and
NOAA AR3081 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3083 decayed and was
quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class
flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class
flare.

Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), associated with the M2 and M1 flares,
produced by NOAA AR3078. Due to the close timing of these events the CMEs
are difficult to distinguish in the coronagraph imagery. The first
signature is observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 14:30 UT on August 17, with one
eruption directed towards the south east and the other more directed
towards the south. Given the location of the source region, a glancing blow
at Earth may be expected early on August 20.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the period
and decreases rapidly due to the geomagnetic storm from 19 UT. It is
expected to be below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron
fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels in
the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters were enhanced, reflecting the passing of the ICME
and the influence of the expected high speed stream. The value of the total
magnetic field increased to 17nT. There was a prolonged period of negative
Bz between 16UT and 20UT, with a minimum value of -17nT reached. The solar
wind speed gradually increased from 420 to 600 km/s. The magnetic field
orientation was mostly in the negative sector (field directed towards the
Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to remain
enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the combination of effects from the
current ICME, the possible arrival of another ICME and the effects of the
high-speed stream.

Geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels globally (NOAA Kp=6)
and minor storm levels locally at Dourbes (k=5) between 18UT and midnight.
Geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours are expected to be Active to
minor storm conditions, with further intervals of moderate storm conditions
possible, due to the possible arrival of more ICMEs on August 18 and 19, in
combination with high-speed stream effects.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 098, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Aug 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 123
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 034
AK WINGST              : 029
ESTIMATED AP           : 027
ESTIMATED ISN          : 120, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
17  1326  1345 1350 S24W26 M2.0 1N       10/3078      III/1 
17  1428  1452 1510 ////// M1.0          10/3078      VI/2III/2 
18  1000  1009 1013 ////// M1.3          10/3078      III/1 
18  1037  1055 1113 ////// M1.5          10/3078      II/1 
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#