SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Apr 21 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40421
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Apr 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Apr 2024  10CM FLUX: 212 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Apr 2024  10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Apr 2024  10CM FLUX: 208 / AP: 017

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at low levels,
with multiple C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest
flare of the period was an C7.5 flare, peaking at 17:06 UTC on Apr 20,
associated with NOAA AR 3645 (beta). There are currently 13 numbered active
regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3647 (beta-delta) and NOAA AR 3639
(beta-gamma) are the most complex active regions on disk but were inactive.
Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3638 (beta class).  Other
regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric
magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring
activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate
levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a small
chance for X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the
available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected the
waning influence of the ICME. The total magnetic field was below 6 nT. The
solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s and 490 km/s. The southward
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and
4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between being
directed towards the Sun to being directed away from the Sun. The solar
wind conditions are expected to continue its return to the slow solar wind
regime in the next 24 hours with a chance for a weak enhancement on Apr
21-23 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity
coronal hole and anticipated arrival of CMEs from Apr 17 - Apr 18, however
with low confidence.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally
and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 2 to 3) during the last 24 hours.
Predominantly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on Apr 21-23
with a chance of reaching active and minor storm conditions due to expected
HSS arrival and potential CMEs arrivals.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so with
possible enhancements in case of increased levels of solar activity over
the next days.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is
expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24
hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at
these levels for the following 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 219, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Apr 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : ///
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : ///
ESTIMATED ISN          : 224, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.