SIDC ursigram

:Issued: 2025 Jul 08 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50708
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Jul 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jul 2025  10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jul 2025  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2025  10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 008

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over
the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a
M2.4 flare (SIDC Flare 4813) peaking on July 08 at 04:17 UTC, which erupted
behind the Suns east limb. A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were
identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. All regions on disk have
either an Alpha or Beta magnetic configuration.  Solar flaring activity is
expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely
and a chance for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Coronal holes: Returning SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (mid-latitude coronal hole
with a positive polarity) started to cross the central meridian on July 08.
The high-speed stream (HSS) from this coronal hole is expected to enhance
the solar wind near Earth on July 11.

Solar wind: In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth were
disturbed, due to the waning influence of a high-speed stream (HSS),
associated with SIDC coronal hole 111. The total interplanetary magnetic
field ranged from 6 nT to a peak of 10 nT, with the Bz component reaching a
minimum of -8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 496 km/s to 606 km/s.
The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun)
with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind conditions are expected
to remain disturbed in the next 24 hours due to the ongoing influence of
the HSS.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached
active conditions globally (Kp 4) and were unsettled locally (K BEL 3).
Quiet to active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the
next days.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold
over the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at
normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24
hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 088, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 07 Jul 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 140
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 118
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 030
AK WINGST              : 024
ESTIMATED AP           : 028
ESTIMATED ISN          : 095, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
08  0342  0417 0437 ////// M2.4          ///////      
END

UMAGF 30503 50708 1004/ 07065 1/030 23334 33333
UMAGF 31523 50708 0000/ 07003 1/024 25433 33443
BT
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