SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2025 Feb 19 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50219
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Feb 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 183 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 181 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were
identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was
low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The
largest flare was a C4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3654) peaking on February 19 at
10:49 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 404 (NOAA Active Region
3997). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours,
with C-class flares very likely and a M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24
hours.

Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 91 (high-latitude coronal hole with a
positive polarity) crossed the central meridian on February 16. This CH is
located at high northern latitudes, so its solar wind will probably not
affect the Earth.

Solar wind: The solar wind speed at Earth has been steady at around 500
km/s in the last 24 hours, with an interplanetary magnetic field currently
around 8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated
(reaching 11 nT, with Bz down to - 8 nT) in the last 24 hours, this was
probably related to a mild glancing blow of a CME leaving the Sun on 15
February. A gradual transition to slower solar wind can be expected in the
next 24 hours, with low chances of seeing an ICME arrival corresponding to
the CME of 16 February.


Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels with Kp up
to 5 between 00:00 UTC to 03:00 UTC. Mostly unsettled to active conditions
can be expected for the next 24 hours, with low chances of more disturbed
periods if the ICME corresponding to the CME of 16 February arrives (low
chances).


Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater-than-10 MeV GOES 16 and 18 electron
flux has been above the threshold in the last 24 hours, but it is currently
below it. It is expected to rise above the threshold in the next 24 hours.
The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected
to remain so in the next 24 hours.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 127, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Feb 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 178
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 028
AK WINGST              : 016
ESTIMATED AP           : 016
ESTIMATED ISN          : 159, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 50219 1004/ 18069 1/028 22122 32543
UMAGF 31523 50219 0000/ 18007 1/016 24321 31325
BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.