SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Jul 18 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40718
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jul 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 209 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 008

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate with
two double M2 flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region
(AR) 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 8) emitted an
M2.0 at 17 Jul 19:58 UTC and NOAA AR 3751 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma,
Catania sunspot group no 12) produced an M2.2 at 18 Jul 10:14 UTC. For the
next 24 hours further isolated M-class activity is likely, either from NOAA
AR 3751 or the group of NOAA AR 3743, 3758, 3745, 3747. There is also a
small chance of an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were
observed in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind: Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained typical of the slow SW
regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 400
km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1
and 7 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz)
fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi
angle was directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed
Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and
cause a significant disturbance.

Geomagnetism: During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally
quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a three-hour period of
unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3). They are expected to rise to unsettled or
possible active levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream
(HSS) in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there
is a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours
and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h
electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is
expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 287, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Jul 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 224
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 007
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 278, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
17  1940  1951 1953 N11W46 M1.2 1N       08/3753      
17  1953  1958 2004 ////// M2.0          08/3753      
18  1004  1014 1020 ////// M2.2          12/3751      
18  1020  1027 1031 ////// M2.0          ///////      
END

UMAGF 30503 40718 1004/ 17060 1/009 22221 31111
UMAGF 31523 40718 0000/ 17002 1/007 21222 33221
BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.