SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2022 May 16 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20516
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 May 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 May 2022 until 18 May 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 002
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24
hours, with seven C-class flares detected and the strongest being a C5
today at 10:01 UT. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3015 produced three of the
C-class flares, while the brightest flare was produced by an AR yet to turn
into view, at N17E84. Another AR not yet visible from Earth's direction
produced a C1 flare at S16E89 today at 05:01. NOAA AR 2015 and the two
unnumbered AR are expected to produce more C-class activity in the next 24
hours. As the magnetic configuration of the two AR cannot be determined,
there is a fair chance of an isolated M-class flare from any of those two
AR during the coming 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the
available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is
expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h
electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE
satellites) are still typical of a fast SW regime. The SW speed dropped
gradually from 570 to 480 km/s, during the last 24 hours. The total
magnetic field remained close to 10 nT for most of the time during the past
24 hours. Its Bz component varied between -6 and 8 nT during the same
period. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly
positive (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar
wind conditions are expected to very gradually return to a slow wind
regime.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally moderate (NOAA Kp and K
Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain moderate and
perhaps become quiet during the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 152, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 May 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 154
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 015
AK WINGST              : 014
ESTIMATED AP           : 014
ESTIMATED ISN          : 143, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 20516 1004/ 15061 1/015 22132 32123
UMAGF 31523 20516 0000/ 15006 1/014 24432 33321
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.