SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Nov 07 1235 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41107
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Nov 2024, 1235UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2024  10CM FLUX: 266 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2024  10CM FLUX: 270 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2024  10CM FLUX: 266 / AP: 013

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the
past 24 hours, with 1 X-class flare and 13 M-class flares identified. The
largest flare was a X2.39 flare peaking on November 06 at 13:40 UTC, which
was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883). The
second largest flare was a M5.31 flare peaking on November 06 at 14:27 UTC,
which was produced by NOAA Active Region 3889. A new region that rotates on
the visible solar disk in the last 24 hours. A total of 10 numbered sunspot
groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot
Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) is the most magnetically complex active
region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and together with NOAA Active Region 3889
produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot
Group 309 (NOAA Active Region 3887) has started to rotate over the west
limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the
coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a
chance for an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 07:36 UTC on November 07, which is associated with a
filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 around 05:25 UTC on November 07 near
the west limb. Analysis of the CME is ongoing. Preliminary analysis
suggests a velocity of around 900 km/s.

Coronal holes: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and
DSCOVR) declined to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic
field, B, reached a maximum value of 5 nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The
solar wind velocity declined from 460 km/s to around 385 km/s. The phi-
angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with
periods in the negative sector. There is a chance the solar wind condition
will become enhanced over the next 24 hours due to a glancing blow arrival
from a CME that was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 on November 04
and a possible high speed stream from the small negative polarity
equatorial coronal hole.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and
DSCOVR) declined to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic
field, B, reached a maximum value of 5 nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The
solar wind velocity declined from 460 km/s to around 385 km/s. The phi-
angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with
periods in the negative sector. There is a low probability the solar wind
condition will become enhanced over the next 24 hours due to a glancing
blow arrival from a CME that was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 on
November 04.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were
locally quite to unsettled (K BEL 1-3) and globally quiet (Kp 1-2). Active
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the
next days.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in
the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is
expected to remain so in the next days.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 221, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 06 Nov 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 260
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 014
AK WINGST              : 011
ESTIMATED AP           : 010
ESTIMATED ISN          : 210, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
06  1156  1204 1210 S07E17 M1.5 SF       88/3883      
06  1256  1302 1311 ////// M1.2          ///3889      
06  1324  1340 1346 N13W64 X2.3 SF       88/3883      III/2 
06  1427  1438 1445 S11E38 M5.3 1F       ///3889      III/1 
06  1710  1718 1723 ////// M1.2          ///3889      
06  1853  1859 1913 ////// M1.1          ///3889      
06  2035  2042 2052 ////// M1.3          ///3889      
06  2310  2316 2321 ////// M1.1          ///3889      
07  0115  0127 0139 S10E80 M2.5 SF       ///3889      
06  2342  0004 0016 ////// M1.6          ///3889      
07  0352  0420 0432 S06E15 M2.5 1N       88/3883      
07  0720  0726 0736 S09E06 M1.3  1       88/3883      III/2 
07  0736  0743 0746 S06E37 M1.6  S       ///3889      
07  0746  0754 0801 ////// M2.7          ///3889      
06  2243  2305 2310 ////// M1.1          ///3889      
END

UMAGF 30503 41107 1004/ 06069 1/014 22222 33211
UMAGF 31523 41107 0000/ 06001 1/011 23322 32233
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.