SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2022 May 20 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20520
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 May 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 May 2022 until 22 May 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 171 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 004
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with
two M-class flares detected as originating from NOAA Active Region (AR)
3014 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 14). The first one was
an M1 that took place at 19 May 15:16 UT and the second an M3 today at
07:49 UT. There were also five C-class flares, three of which originated
from NOAA AR 3014. More C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours,
mostly from NOAA AR 3014, and there is a good chance of one or more M-class
flares.

Three Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) automatically detected by CACTus on 19
May at 12:24, 14:49, and 16:36 UT. However, there are judged to be back-
sided and not geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is
expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h
electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE
satellites) are typical of the slow SW regime, albeit with untypically high
electron speed. The SW speed varied between 480 and 620 km/s in the last 24
hours. During the same period the total magnetic field varied between 4 and
11 nT, while its Bz component varied between -6 and 5 nT. The
interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly positive
(directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind
conditions are expected to remain in the same regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally moderate (NOAA Kp and K
Dourbes 2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain moderate during
the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 133, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 May 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 198
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 173
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : 013
ESTIMATED AP           : 013
ESTIMATED ISN          : 138, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
19  1000  1009 1020 N20E18 M1.5 1N       14/3014      III/1 
19  1505  1516 1523 N21E13 M1.1 SF       14/3014      VI/1 
20  0735  0745 0749 S13W22 M3.0 SF  210  14/3014      
END

UMAGF 30503 20520 1004/ 19065 1/017 23222 32223
UMAGF 31523 20520 0000/ 19005 1/013 23332 33233
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.