SIDC ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
Frequency | Daily |
Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
Mail header | SIDC ursigram |
SIDC code | tot |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 Nov 07 1235 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 41107 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Nov 2024, 1235UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 266 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 270 / AP: 016 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 266 / AP: 013 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 1 X-class flare and 13 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a X2.39 flare peaking on November 06 at 13:40 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883). The second largest flare was a M5.31 flare peaking on November 06 at 14:27 UTC, which was produced by NOAA Active Region 3889. A new region that rotates on the visible solar disk in the last 24 hours. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) is the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and together with NOAA Active Region 3889 produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 309 (NOAA Active Region 3887) has started to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 07:36 UTC on November 07, which is associated with a filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 around 05:25 UTC on November 07 near the west limb. Analysis of the CME is ongoing. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 900 km/s. Coronal holes: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) declined to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 5 nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The solar wind velocity declined from 460 km/s to around 385 km/s. The phi- angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. There is a chance the solar wind condition will become enhanced over the next 24 hours due to a glancing blow arrival from a CME that was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 on November 04 and a possible high speed stream from the small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) declined to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 5 nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The solar wind velocity declined from 460 km/s to around 385 km/s. The phi- angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. There is a low probability the solar wind condition will become enhanced over the next 24 hours due to a glancing blow arrival from a CME that was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 on November 04. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quite to unsettled (K BEL 1-3) and globally quiet (Kp 1-2). Active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 221, BASED ON 07 STATIONS. 99999 SOLAR INDICES FOR 06 Nov 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 260 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014 AK WINGST : 011 ESTIMATED AP : 010 ESTIMATED ISN : 210, BASED ON 12 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 06 1156 1204 1210 S07E17 M1.5 SF 88/3883 06 1256 1302 1311 ////// M1.2 ///3889 06 1324 1340 1346 N13W64 X2.3 SF 88/3883 III/2 06 1427 1438 1445 S11E38 M5.3 1F ///3889 III/1 06 1710 1718 1723 ////// M1.2 ///3889 06 1853 1859 1913 ////// M1.1 ///3889 06 2035 2042 2052 ////// M1.3 ///3889 06 2310 2316 2321 ////// M1.1 ///3889 07 0115 0127 0139 S10E80 M2.5 SF ///3889 06 2342 0004 0016 ////// M1.6 ///3889 07 0352 0420 0432 S06E15 M2.5 1N 88/3883 07 0720 0726 0736 S09E06 M1.3 1 88/3883 III/2 07 0736 0743 0746 S06E37 M1.6 S ///3889 07 0746 0754 0801 ////// M2.7 ///3889 06 2243 2305 2310 ////// M1.1 ///3889 END UMAGF 30503 41107 1004/ 06069 1/014 22222 33211 UMAGF 31523 41107 0000/ 06001 1/011 23322 32233 BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.