GEOALERT SIDC

:Issued: 2026 Jul 11 1251 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
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# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #
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GEOALERT BRU192
UGEOA 30512 60711 1251/ 9930/ 
12112 22112 30112 
99999
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 031

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a
C6.0 flare (SIDC Flare 8182) peaking on July 10 at 14:59 UTC, which was
produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). During the
flare, the source region (SIDC Sunspot Group 909) of the flare had Beta-
Gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 6
numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours.
SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485) is the most complex group
with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations. Solar flaring activity is
expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares
expected, possibly M-class flares and a very low chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejections (CME) detected at 07:53
UTC on Jul 09 in LASCO C2 was further analysed using STEREO-A/COR2 images.
This shows that this CME has a projected speed of about 750 km/s and a
projected width of about 60 deg. This CME was possibly associated to a C2.7
flare (S13 W27, SIDC flare 8178) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA
Active Region 4485) on Jul 09 (peak time 07:13). With its source region
closer to the central meridian, a glancing blow is possible at Earth on Jul
12. Another CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 15:36 on
Jul 10. It was associated to a C6.0 flare (SIDC Flare 8182, S15 W46)
peaking on Jul 10 at 14:59 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group
909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). This CME has a projected width of about 80
deg and projected speed of about 650 km/s. A glancing blow associated to
this CME may be possible at Earth on Jul 13. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24
hour.

Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 162 (recurrent, mid-latitude extension of
polar-north coronal hole with a negative polarity) has started to cross the
central meridian on Jul 10. The associated high-speed streams are expected
to arrive at Earth on Jul 13 but the probability is low due to the coronal
hole's location.

Solar wind: Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar
wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 485 km/s and 685 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 6 nT. The North-South
component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 4 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters
are possible in the next 24 hours, due to the arrival of high-speed streams
(but low probability) from the SIDC Coronal Hole 171 (very small, negative
polarity) that crossed the central meridian on Jul 09, as well as due to
possible glancing blow related to the Jul 09 CME (associated to a flaring
activity produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485)).

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to
unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). We expect unsettled to
minor storm conditions (K 3 to 5) in the next 24 hours, with the arrival of
high-speed streams (but low probability) from the SIDC Coronal Hole 171
(very small, negative polarity) that crossed the central meridian on Jul
09, as well as due to possible glancing blow related to the Jul 09 CME
(associated to a flaring activity produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA
Active Region 4485)).

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for
the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, predominantly remained above the 1000
pfu threshold level, except electron flux measured by GOES-19 was below
threshold level briefly around midnight. The electron flux may remain above
the threshold level in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at
moderate levels and is expected to remain so.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 077, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 60711 1251/ 10/// 
10127 2107/ 3013/ 4//// 80106 90880 
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 60711 1251/ ///// ///// 
99999
USSPS 21305 09198 08832 98001 42114 2/801 00003 11409 31305 96023 34009
54420 99047 21208 54422
USSPS 81202 10018 07322 53001 42115 0/101 59001 10909 2/801 57016 34110
31412 54042 21208 51519
UMAGF 30503 60711 1004/ 10065 1/017 23222 32322
UMAGF 31523 60711 0000/ 10005 1/013 22333 33233
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