GEOALERT SIDC

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header GEOALERT SIDC
SIDC code xut

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Jul 14 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU196
UGEOA 30512 40714 1239/ 9930/ 
12142 21142 38142 
99999
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 235 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 230 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 230 / AP: 004

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24
hours reached high levels with multiple M-class flaring and an impulsive
X1.2-flare, start time 02:23 UTC, peak time 03:18 UTC, end time 02:34 UTC
on July 14. The X-flare was produced by the largest and most complex active
region NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma-delta), which increased the complexity of
its underlying magnetic field and was responsible for most of the
registered flaring activity. There are currently eleven numbered active
regions on the visible solar disc. Isolated M-class flaring was produced by
the new region NOAA AR 3751 and high C-class flaring was produced by NOAA
AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3742 (beta). NOAA AR 3744 (beta-gamma) has shown
some development, but has remained silent. The remaining active regions
have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely
to be at moderate to high levels over the coming days with 80% chance for
M-class flaring and 30% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have
been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and
DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions with some
small perturbations since around 05 UTC on July 14. The solar wind velocity
was in the range of 265 km/s to 375 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
registered a maximum value of 6.9 nT with a minimum Bz of -4.1 nT. The B
field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards
the Sun) with prolonged periods in the positive sector registered on July
14. The solar wind conditions are expected to register moderate
disturbances later on July 14 and July 15 with anticipated high speed
stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which
crossed the central meridian on July 10.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were
globally quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions were registered over
Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for July 14 with low
chances for isolated minor storms due to anticipated high speed stream
arrival. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for July 15 and
July 16.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the
next days.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by
GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to
remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal
level and is expected to remain so in the next days.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 221, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 40714 1239/ 13/// 
1//// 22380 3006/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
13  1221  1242 1258 ////// M5.3          85/3738      /1    29I/1 
13  1459  1530 1541 ////// M1.8          05/3747      
13  1541  1544 1548 ////// M1.9          05/3747      
13  1925  1930 1934 ////// M1.0 F        85/3738      
13  2244  2301 2312 ////// M5.0          85/3738      
14  0105  0116 0131 ////// M1.7          85/3738      
14  0223  0234 0248 ////// X1.2          ///////      II/2 
14  0405  0413 0418 ////// M3.0 F        85/3738      I/2II/1 
14  1016  1020 1024 ////// M1.0 F        85/3738      
END

UGEOR 30512 40714 1239/ ///// ///// 
99999
USSPS 81202 12028 12332 09003 34121 3/801 12110 31709 54530 20018 14916
41504 25004 16714 11302 18026 23509 24512 19006 24218 11402 21018 24225
4/802
USSPS 32404 12059 13832 36002 34520 2/801 38042 31409 57642 45007 23308
27413 46001 24017 11402 47008 15017 21404 48008 24224 2/802 54000 16816
01204
USSPS 31405 12070 23532 01001 40817 0/103 02001 22724 01204 03002 13115
01205 04004 24017 14408 05013 24124 21304 06002 16815 01205 81003 34521
21304 85091 31811 54663 87001 37515 0/101 93015 23408 25423 96012 15217
24405
USSPS 21305 12158 21142 72002 35021 1/802 75103 32210 47667 80001 22123
01204 81016 22907 24425 83016 14716 21411 87001 23517 0/102 84017 23723
2/802 88002 16217 01205 89001 24010 0/103
UMAGF 30503 40714 1004/ 13061 1/010 22120 32112
UMAGF 31523 40714 0000/ 13009 1/006 21212 32221
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Details

The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.
Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.