The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has now exceeded the 10 pfu threshold marking a minor solar radiation storm. The proton flux levels were increased as a result of the solar activity on Sept 14th with X4.5 flaring from NOAA 3825 (beta-gamma) and associated halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which has now arrived to Earth. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels are expected to remain elevated on Sept 17th and start declining on Sept 18th in case of no new strong eruptive solar activity.

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background C-class flaring. There are six numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3828 (beta-gamma-delta) growing to become the largest and most complex region. Most of the flaring activity was produced by NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma) from the west limb, NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3829 (beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be predominantly at low levels over the coming days with 40% chances of M-class flares and 5% chances for isolated X-class flaring. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at the border of nominal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with isolated active periods are expected over the next days. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly perturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 9.1 nT with Bz as low as - 8.7 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 340 km/s to 499 km/s. The B field phi angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be slightly perturbed in the upcoming days under the possible influence of mild high speed stream.