A faint almost full halo coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 725) was detected by LASCO/C2 around 07:12 UTC on October 06. The CME is seen by STEREO A/COR2 as a relatively narrow westward eruption lifting off the solar surface around 06:23 UTC. The eruption is associated with a large on-disc dimming and a coronal wave near the disc centre. The CME is related to an M1.4 flaring (SIDC Flare 8666) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549) currently located at N10E10. An associated fast type II radio emission was detected at 05:59 UTC. The CME is estimated to have a projected velocity close to 560 km/s and is expected to have an Earth-directed component. Preliminary analysis suggests possible arrival time on October 09. Minor geomagnetic storm levels can be expected in the UTC afternoon on October 09 with chances of reaching isolated moderate storm levels.

The solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring. A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. The strongest recorded activity was a C3.6 flare (SIDC Flare 8673) peaking on October 06 at 15:06 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549). This region, currently located at N10W04, was the main contributor to the observed flaring activity over the past 24 hours. It continues to be classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta and has exhibited further flux emergence and related growth. Isolated low flaring activity was detected from another region just behind the south-east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 975 (NOAA Active Region 4547), currently located at N15W63, was decreasing and remained inactive. SIDC Sunspot Group 973 (NOAA Active Region 4545), currently located at N18W10, has exhibited further growth, but remained inactive. SIDC Sunspot Group 946 (NOAA Active Region 4548) remained simple and quiet, while SIDC Sunspot Group 977 has decayed. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with very likely C-class flares and chances for isolated M-class flaring. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. SIDC Coronal Hole 149 (a recurrent mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) has crossed the central meridian on October 07. A high speed stream related to it might be expected at Earth starting on October 10. Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours. Some enhancements remain possible pending strong eruptive activity related to SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was well above the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to further exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were at quiet to unsettled levels. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible unsettled to active periods on October 08 should any high speed stream related to SIDC Coronal Hole 182 reach the Earth. Active to minor storm levels with chances for isolated moderate storms are possible on October 09 due to an expected ICME arrival. Further active to minor storm levels are possible on October 10 under a waning influence of the expected ICME arrival potentially mixed with anticipated high-speed stream related to SIDC Coronal Hole 149. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) registered a gradual return to background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied in the range of 357 to 482 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) remained weak with a maximum magnitude of 4.3 nT and a minimum north-south (Bz) component of - 3.9 nT. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain at slow solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours. Small enhancements are possible later on October 08 pending any weak influence from a possible high-speed stream arrival related to SIDC Coronal Hole 182. Further enhancements in the solar wind conditions are anticipated on October 09 with an expected ICME arrival of SIDC CME 725. Perturbed solar wind conditions are expected to continue on October 10 with anticipated waning ICME influence, possibly mixed with a new high speed stream arrival related to the negative polarity SIDC Coronal Hole 149.