A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data. It was associated with the X4.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6063) that peaked at 08:30 UTC on 14 Nov 2025 from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). The plane-of-sky speed in SOHO/LASCO is about 1500 km/s, while STEREO-A indicates about 1300 km/s. A 3D reconstruction gives a true speed of roughly 1650 to 1700 km/s. The apex is slightly offset from the Sun-Earth line, so a direct impact is unlikely, but a flank encounter remains possible. EUHFORIA modeling indicates a glancing blow early on 16 Nov with at most a weak to moderate shock or compression, and geomagnetic activity up to active or minor storm levels depending on the interplanetary magnetic field orientation within the CME.

A class X4.0 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2025/11/14 with peak time 08:30UT

A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics: t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv| 2025-11-14T07:48:07.418 | 3.0 | 336 | 190 | 946 | 305 | 400 | 1736 t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff dt0: duration of liftoff (hours) pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees) da: angular width of the CME (degrees), v: median velocity (km/s) dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 693 (NOAA Active Region 4284) currently located at S07W10 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and was the most complex and active region over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C7.5 flare (SIDC Flare 6112) peaking on November 17 at 01:30 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 693 (NOAA Active Regions 4280, 4284). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares. No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. SIDC Coronal Hole 136 (small mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) just started crossing the central meridian. The influence of the associated high speed stream is expected to impact earth during Nov 20 2025. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. Electron flux levels are expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remains at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic activity was active globally and unsettled locally over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active in the next 24h due to a potential high-speed stream arrival. The solar wind conditions at Earth are gradually returning to slower solar wind conditions over the past 24h. The solar wind speed decreased from 628 to 546 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. Over the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions may be enhanced following the potential arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from coronal hole 126.