The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached high levels with background C-class flaring and one registered M-flare. The strongest recorded activity was a M6.7 flare (SIDC Flare 8685) with peak time at 15:48 UTC on October 08. The flare was produced within SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549) currently located at N10W31. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk with SIDC Sunspot Group 976 remaining the largest and most complex region. It continues to be classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta and was the main contributor to the observed flaring activity over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 973 (NOAA Active Region 4545), currently located at N18W37, has exhibited some decay. It is classified as magnetic type beta and remained quiet. A new region has emerged on disc SIDC Sunspot Group 979, currently located at N22W11, and another one, SIDC Sunspot Group 980, is rotating from behind the south-east limb. Both are classified as magnetic type beta and the latter one has exhibited some low flaring activity while behind the east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flaring and chances for an X-class flare.
A wide coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 727) was observed by LASCO/C2 to lift off the solar surface around 16:12 UTC on October 08 with a white-light shock and an estimated projected speed of around 500 km/s. The eruption is likely linked to the M6.7 flaring from SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549) with an associated EUV dimming and a coronal wave detected in the SDO/AIA data around 16:33 UTC on October 08. Related type II and type IV solar radio emissions were detected at 15:42 UTC and 16:12 UTC on October 08 respectively. SIDC CME 727 is estimated to have an Earth-directed component and current analysis suggests a possible arrival time late UTC on October 11 to early UTC on October 12.
Another EUV dimming and a small coronal wave were observed in the SDO/AIA imagery starting at 17:36 UTC on October 08, seemingly related to a filament eruption in the south-eastern quadrant triggered by the same event chain. A faint eastward eruption is visible in the LASCO/C2 around 17:00 UTC, but is expected to travel off the Sun-Earth line.
SIDC Coronal Hole 149 (a recurrent mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) continues to reside on the central meridian. A high-speed stream related to it might be expected at Earth on October 09, possibly mixed with anticipated ICME arrival signatures related to SIDC CME 725.
Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained at close to nominal levels, while exhibiting some further enhancements related to activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549). The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to further increase over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching the 10 pfu proton event threshold.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to be predominantly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.
