Major geomagnetic storms have been detected around 18:00 UTC on October 10 with the global NOAA Kp and the local K Belgium indices reaching 7. The geomagnetic storms are caused by an ICME arrival, possibly an early arrival of SIDC CME 727, which lifted off the solar surface on October 08. A strong shock has been detected in the solar wind data (as measured by ACE at L1) at 14:41 UTC on October 10 marking the ICME arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field increased up to 46 nT and the north-south (Bz) component has meanwhile reached almost - 29 nT. Related to the ICME arrival the solar wind speed has peaked at 904 km/s and is currently close to 800 km/s. Further moderate to major storms might be expected in the upcoming hours followed by periods of minor geomagnetic storms.

A class M6.4 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2026/10/10 with peak time 15:10UT

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 8719), peaking at 03:40 UTC on October 13 from behind the west limb, and was most likely associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549). There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 980 (NOAA Active Region 4551, magnetic type beta-gamma) is the most complex group. SIDC Sunspot Group 983 (magnetic type beta) rotated on disk from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Groups 981 and 982 (NOAA Active Regions 4553 and 4555, respectively) decayed into plage regions. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 1 to 3, K BEL 1 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible active intervals due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected slightly perturbed solar wind conditions, likely due to the possible glancing blow arrival from SIDC CME 729. Speed values ranged between about 445 km/s and 540 km/s, with a slight enhancement after around 00:00 UTC on October 13. The interplanetary magnetic field values ranged between about 5 nT and 16 nT. The Bz component varied between about -8 nT and 15 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly perturbed over the next 24 hours, with possible further enhancements due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142.