A moderate geomagnetic storm was observed globally as the NOAA planetary Kp index reached 6- between 18:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on October 04. Locally over Belgium, only minor geomagnetic storm conditions were observed. This is in response to the arrival of the high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 179 (equatorial, positive polarity, recurrent coronal hole) which crossed the central during Sep 30 - Oct 02. Further active to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions may be expected in the next 48 hours.

The solar flaring activity was very low over the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux was below C level. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. The largest flare was a C1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 8646) peaking on October 05 at 11:48 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 975 (NOAA Active Region 4547). The region is currently located at N16W34 and has exhibited some growth, retaining a beta magnetic type configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 973 (NOAA Active Region 4545) has exhibited a significant decay, but remains classified as magnetic type beta. A new region SIDC Sunspot Group 976 currently located at N10E23 has emerged and is classified as magnetic type beta. SIDC Sunspot Group 974 (NOAA Active Region 4546) and SIDC Sunspot Group 946 (NOAA Active Region 4548) remained simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. SIDC Coronal Hole 182 (a small equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) has crossed the central meridian on October 04 and is now positioned on the western side of the Sun. The coronal hole appears too weak and narrow to cause any significant high speeds stream arrival at Earth, yet some minor enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible on October 08. Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours have varied between quiet to moderate storm levels with NOAA Kp reaching 6- between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC on October 04. The local geomagnetic conditions over Belgium were at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with small chances for isolated active periods. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on October 06 and 07 with small chances for unsettled to active periods on October 08 should any high speed stream related to SIDC Coronal Hole 182 reach the Earth. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) were under the influence of a high speed stream arrival associated with a re-current positive polarity SIDC Coronal Hole 179. The solar wind speed increased to 643 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) reached a magnitude of 17.6 nT with a minimum north-south (Bz) component of - 13.7 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain under the influence of the ongoing high speed stream over the next day and start a slow return towards background slow solar wind regime thereafter.