2024 LYRA Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)
Please note:
- This is a daily estimation of the expected flare strength distribution, based on the levels of
- LYRA channel 2-3 (Aluminium filter),
- LYRA channel 2-4 (Zirconium filter),
- GOES soft Xray, and
- the sunspot number.
- The estimates use data from 01 Feb 2010 to 31 Dec 2014 for the updated version of this method.
- Here are Forecast Verification Measures for this method.
- Additional information can be found here:
The LYRA Flare List
The List of GOES flares since LYRA First Light 06 Jan 2010
The List of daily flare statistics
The probability distribution of daily maximum flare strengths 2010-2014
- Please note: WDC-SILSO switched to a new sunspot number in July 2015. Until our software is updated accordingly, the version 2.0 sunspot numbers will be multiplied with a factor 0.65 to be consistent with data from former version 1.0.
2010 page | 2017 page
2011 page | 2018 page
2012 page | 2019 page
2013 page | 2020 page
2014 page | 2021 page
2015 page | 2022 page
2016 page | 2023 page
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IED, 29 Apr 2024